World powers aim to capitalise on Ukraine's marine innovations, which could transform naval warfare.
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One of Ukraine’s most potent weapons struck again on Tuesday, as Russian gunboat Sergei Kotov proved no match for a swarm of Magura V5 marine drones, with both the ship and much of the crew lost, according to military sources on both sides.
The humbling of one of the world’s most powerful navies by cheap homemade devices has offered encouragement for Ukraine in a war that may be turning in Russia’s favour, with a series of gains in the east backed by advantages in manpower and ammunition.
Ukraine claimed last month to have sunk one third of the Black Sea Fleet – more than 20 ships – most using marine drones. The International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank claims to have verified 13. Marine drones have also been used against targets such as the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia with occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov said that drone operator crews have become increasingly effective in achieving the destruction of enemy targets, aided by tools such as Elon Musk’s Starlink system. “The technologies are developing, the operators are becoming more skilled,” he told Ukraine’s Pravda news site.
The partnership between several Ukrainian government ministries and an unnamed private company that reportedly assembles the nation’s marine drones has delivered a range of designs beyond the Magura, with Kyiv claiming the latest iterations can travel more than 600 miles with an 850kg payload of explosives.
This rapidly advancing expertise has made Ukraine a market leader in an increasingly crowded field, as world superpowers, non-state actors, and criminal gangs race to exploit the possibilities of unmanned vessels.
Samuel Bendett, a Russia-focused drone researcher at US think tanks the Centre for Naval Analyses and Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says that Ukraine has become the eminent marine drone power and its hard-won knowledge is in high demand.
“They are already working with the US and international partners and sharing technologies,” he said. “They are inviting Western technology and defence investors to invest in their capabilities to build them up.
“As long as Ukraine remains an independent state capable of fighting Russia, the sky’s the limit.”
Dr James Rogers, head of the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute and author of a book on the history of drones, said that while many nations and groups are making advances with marine drones, necessity has put Ukraine in pole position.
“Given Ukraine’s reliance on drones to ensure its survival as a nation state, it is Ukraine’s military and industrial base that is leading on unmanned marine vehicle (UMV) innovation today,” he said.
The use of unmanned boats by militaries dates back to at least the Second World War, says Dr Rogers, when the UK loaded a destroyer with dynamite to attack Nazi positions.
Yemen’s Houthi group has pioneered the use of explosive-packed drone boats to attack Saudi ships in the Red Sea since 2017, with technology from sponsor Iran, which is developing new capabilities in the field.
The militants have also used unmanned vessels in an attempt to enforce a blockade of Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war, according to the US military.
Russia is also developing marine drone capabilities, says Mr Bendett, as it scrambles to neutralise the threat from Ukraine.
“Russia claims to have fielded a number of UMVs this year,” he said. “These would monitor the Black Sea region and the littorals [coastal areas] around Crimea and other ports.
“They are probably going to use them as Istar [intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance] platforms, kamikaze slash combat boats that will go after identified Ukrainian assets. So we are going to have UMVs versus UMV action.”
China, too, is taking ambitious steps, unveiling the heavily armed Thunderer A2000 at a military trade show in Saudi Arabia last month. “Its versatility and potency herald a new era of unmanned maritime warfare,” Naval News reported.
The US navy has a dedicated department for marine drones, Task Force 59, which recently deployed a group named “The Pioneers” to the Middle East after claiming to have racked up more than 55,000 operating hours on 15 types of drone.
“We are the pioneers for the future of our Navy,” said group leader Lieutenant Luis Echeverria, whose team has trained on vessels including the T-38 Devil Ray, equipped with an aerial missile system.
For now, the technology tends to favour underdogs more than superpowers, says Mr Bendett, exemplified by Ukraine using devices that cost thousands of dollars to terrorise battleships worth hundreds of times more.
Low-cost components have “lowered the threshold to entry for many state and non-state actors”, he said, adding: “Some of the naval innovations are also not necessarily coming from state militaries.
“The drug cartels in Latin America are building submersible and semi-submersible vessels that can cross the Atlantic. And these are not multi-million dollar projects.”
But major navies will develop elite capabilities for unmanned fleets, the researcher believes, equipped with modern sensors and weapons that could make them defensive or offensive assets.
Dr Rogers predicts that drones will fulfil many of the core functions of national navies within 20 years.
“We will see a mix of fully and semi-autonomous UMVs used for the defence of national coastlines or pipelines and the gathering of intelligence and surveillance,” he said. “In addition, the navies of advanced nations will have offensive autonomous drones that can be deployed en masse against hostile targets.”
Traditional battleships will have autonomous features and be integrated with drone fleets, he believes.
Dr Bendett suggests that in future, militaries could create an unmanned system capable of functioning in the air, on land, and at sea.
“There is a lot of discussion about combining different types of assets in the air, maritime, and ground domains,” he said. “Anything is possible.”